Available for the 2019 growing season, subscribers to Progressive Yield will have access to crop forecasts updated twice a day at any resolution from the field, county or state to the total national yield.
A key component of the forecast is the available water supply which is calculated daily for every cropland field using the soil water holding capacity and the soil moisture percentage. Combining the available water supply with other weather data and weather forecasts, Main Street Data will publish a real time yield forecast for both corn and soybeans. The Progressive Yield model is a computerized representation of crop growth, grain development and yield potential simulated through machine learning algorithms interpreting soil and weather conditions organized by crop stage. The animation above depicts the model results for the 2012 corn growing season using transpired weather. The counties change color as the yield forecast diverges from trend due to weather events as they occur. In the lower left hand corner, the USDA monthly estimates are displayed along with the daily Main Street Data (MSD) Progressive Yield forecast. For reference, the CME futures price for corn is also displayed to demonstrate what happens to price when there is a loss of supply. Even with only current weather data the Progressive Yield model predicts the impact of upcoming USDA yield estimates to corn futures.
Utilizing the same yield model with forecast weather provided by our weather partner, IBM, will give grain traders and marketers a trading signal based on the sensitivity of corn yield to future weather events. While the animation is set for periods of two days during the growing season, Main Street Data customers will get the results twice a day, including the yield results from continuously updated IBM weather forecasts. The Progressive Yield forecast keeps traders informed of how weather is moving the market now and insights into how the market will be trading over the next 15 days.