The last three years have seen record corn yields with relatively small yield volatility. 2019 shows early price volatility which may continue for much of the growing season. Slow planting progress due to excessive soil moisture continues to cut into yield potential with the forecast of more rain to come. Based upon weather to date, Main Street Data’s Progressive Weather Yield service is currently forecasting national yield at 165.2 Bu/A which would translate into a loss of 922 million bushels of total production compared to the current USDA estimate. Due to expected rain in critical regions, the IBM 15 day high resolution hourly weather forecast has yields dropping even further to 162.7 Bu/A for a loss of 1.135 billion bushels of total production.
Progressive Weather Yield keeps traders informed of how current and forecasted weather is moving the market now and insights into how the market will be trading over the next 15 days.
Progressive Weather Yield isn’t a black box yield forecasting service. In addition to national yield forecast we answer “why” did yield expectations change day over day. As the forecasted yield changes daily, the underlying factors determining yield change are also provided. Below is the 2019 planting progress yield gain/loss county map as of May 20th showing yield loss due to late planting and projected late planting due to saturated fields. Illinois, which is the second highest producing state for corn, is significantly behind normal planting progress.
You can hover over each county to get the yield gain or loss.