Slow planting progress due to excessive soil moisture is beginning to cut into soybean yield potential with the forecast of more rain to come. Based upon weather to date, Main Street Data’s Progressive Weather Yield service is currently forecasting national yield at 48.6 Bu/A which would translate into a loss of 75 million bushels of total production compared to the current USDA estimate. Due to expected rain in critical regions, the IBM 15 day high resolution hourly weather forecast has yields dropping even further to 47.0 Bu/A for a loss of 209 million bushels of total production.
Progressive Weather Yield keeps traders informed of how current and forecasted weather is moving the market now and insights into how the market will be trading over the next 15 days.
Progressive Weather Yield isn’t a black box yield forecasting service. In addition to national yield forecast we answer “why” did yield expectations change day over day. As the forecasted yield changes daily, the underlying factors determining yield change are also provided. Below is the 2019 planting progress yield gain/loss county map as of May 20th, showing yield loss due to late planting and projected late planting due to saturated fields. Illinois and Iowa, which are the two highest producing states for soybeans, are significantly behind normal planting progress.
You can hover over each county to get the yield gain or loss.