The last three years have seen record corn yields with relatively small yield volatility. 2019 is, and is likely to, remain very different. 2019’s early price volatility may continue for much of the growing season. Slow planting progress due to excessive soil moisture continues to cut into yield potential with the forecast of more rain to come. Based upon the weather to date, Main Street Data’s Progressive WeatherYield service is currently forecasting national yield at 160.1 Bu/A which would translate into a loss of 1.357 billion bushels of total production compared to the current USDA estimate. Due to expected rain in critical regions over the next 7 days and with improving conditions in the following 8 days, the IBM 15-day high-resolution hourly weather forecast, as incorporated into the MSD yield forecasting model, suggests yields dropping slightly to 159.8 Bu/A for a loss of 1.383 billion bushels of total production.

Progressive WeatherYield keeps traders continuously informed of how current and forecasted weather is moving the market now and insights into how the market will be trading over the next 15 days.

 

Main Street Data built the Progressive WeatherYield model from insights obtained from our extensive dataset of managed, quality-controlled yield data from combines consisting of 1.3B samples. At the core of the model is our unique approach to Available Water Supply (AWS), which is derived from soil characteristics observed and collected by MSD and combined with weather data for every location. AWS is used to determine if, at both extremes, drought conditions exist or if water oversupply conditions are present and all conditions in between. By now most are aware, in 2019 extreme over-supply is taking place in many locations.

Progressive WeatherYield isn’t a black box yield forecasting service. In addition to national yield forecast, we answer “why” did yield expectations change day over day through our unique soil moisture, crop stage tools. As the forecasted yield changes daily, the underlying factors determining yield change are also provided. Below is the 2019 planting progress yield gain/loss county map as of May 28th showing yield loss due to late planting year to date and projected late planting due to saturated fields. Illinois, which is the second highest producing state for corn, is still significantly behind normal planting progress.

 

2019 planting progress yield gain/loss county map as of May 28th

You can hover over each county to get the yield gain or loss.

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