Once again, the USDA Crop Production report has tracked toward the soybean and corn numbers that Main Street Data has had in place for weeks.
USDA soybean production numbers are now very close to PWY numbers
The USDA has adjusted soybean production numbers in Progressive Weather Yield’s direction, with a reduction to 46.9 bushels per acre, very close to the PWY number of 47.3.
USDA corn production adjustment even more compelling than the soybean numbers
Corn production numbers from the USDA report are even more compelling, with the USDA matching the existing Main Street Data Progressive WeatherYield number exactly, at 168.4 bushels per harvested acre:
Soybean production is still very far behind
As the October 7 USDA crop progress report shows, soybeans are late on almost every measure, in almost every state, as compared to 2018. Harvested soybeans in Illinois for 2019 are down 75% as compared to the October 6, 2018 numbers, for example, and the average for the 18 states with 96% harvested in 2018 is less than half the average at this stage in 2018.
As noted by FarmLead, in Monday’s report,
“the USDA said that 17% of American corn and 13% of soybeans had been harvested, both below pre-report expectations. For perspective, the five-year average for the harvest completion rate of these two crops is 27% and 34%. Further, last year, 24% of the U.S. corn crop was cut by this time while 31% of soybeans were combined.” — FarmLead
And Ohio’s Country Journal reports that Roy Ulrich, DEKALB’s technical agronomist argues,
“We’ve just got to get a long fall here. Some of these beans have a long way to go before we get them in the bin. Soybeans are photoperiod dependent and the heat unit accumulation is not as important as it is for corn. As we get later and days get shorter, we still need those beans to fill out. We don’t fully know what impact it will have until we get to harvest.”
— Roy Ulrich, a technical agronomist for DEKALB Asgrow, as quoted in Ohio’s Country Journal.
So it’s a long way to the final story, when it comes to 2019 soybean production.
And finally, tariffs are still affecting soybean price
It’s fair to say that in a normal market, soybeans would be trading much higher right now, but the overshadowing effect of tariffs against China are holding off activity. While a significant drop in soy production was expected today, the USDA has not adjusted it in a way that will sharply affect price, as was expected.
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