Progressive WeatherYield Forecast Many of the 2019 Harvest Big Moments
2019 ended as a run-of-the-mill harvest for corn in terms of area harvested, with 81.8 million acres in 2019 versus 81.7 million in 2018. While it’s a bit anticlimactic for such a tumultuous year to end with such a typical outcome, let’s look more closely at the numbers.
Corn yield outcome for 2019 harvest is reduced, yet still higher than expected
Harvested acres were affected in particular this season by lower soybean prices due to trade uncertainty, which caused farmers to switch from soybeans to corn. However, due to a wet spring, the additional corn acres were lost, or not planted at all.
Because yield loss goes hand in hand with late planting and excess moisture, the market assumed corn yields would be lower for the 2019 harvest, as they were in 1993. But a favorable summer and perfect fall – in addition to Faster-Maturing Hybrid seeds – probably helped offset those lower yields this year. So although 2019 yield is down almost 6%, from 176.4 to 167.0, it’s still higher than was expected this past spring.
This 6% lower yield in the 2019 harvest translates to 19 million+ metric tons fewer than in 2018, due to historic flooding and late planting, even with more acres harvested:
2019 harvest is 4th slowest harvest on record
Add to this the slow harvest season, and there’s more to the harvested acre number than first meets the eye. In fact, the December crop progress report shows 2019 harvest as the 4th slowest on record, with 57% of the corn remaining unharvested in North Dakota.
With these kinds of unpredictable outcomes, it’s important to forecast yield as accurately as possible, and as often as possible.
As shown below, Main Street Data’s Progressive WeatherYield forecast key changes in the monthly USDA reports.
Progressive WeatherYield forecast major USDA report yield numbers, in August, October, and year-end. See how Progressive WeatherYield can help you forecast yield sooner, and more accurately.
Stay in the Know
Sign up for alerts to our blog on crop forecasting, technology in agriculture, agronomy and other useful insights.