Main Street Data foretold final USDA corn yield and harvested acres – 5 months ago.

Today was a big day for U.S. crop data, especially corn yield and harvested acres. The final numbers for the 2019 harvest – one of the most difficult in decades – were issued by the USDA at noon Eastern time. While monthly reports estimate crop production numbers, the January report has the final say about how the 2019 season is recorded in the history books.

Progressive WeatherYield corn yield forecast of 167.9 nailed USDA numbers

In late September, four months before the final number, Main Street Data’s Progressive WeatherYield tool forecast a corn yield of 167.9 bushels per acre. Today, the USDA adjusted their numbers to match MSD data, with a final projected corn yield of 168.0 bushels per acres.

USDA WASDE Corn Yield Year End Page 12

Progressive WeatherYield also forecast final USDA corn harvested acres, in addition to corn yield

A month earlier, in August – and five months before the USDA January 2020 report – Main Street Data forecast 2019 corn harvested at 81.6 million acres, against a USDA projection of 82 million acres harvested. With the final 2019 USDA number coming in today at 81.5 million acres harvested, this means traders and producers subscribing to Progressive WeatherYield had access to the final USDA number well in advance of the final number.

USDA WASDE Corn Yield Year End Page 12

Progressive WeatherYield consistently forecast USDA corn yield reports, throughout the 2019 season

As shown below, the USDA number for corn yield has consistently moved toward existing Progressive WeatherYield forecasts. The advantage for PWY subscribers is a twice-daily forecast that provides them with better information, sooner.

MSD vs WASDE corn yield forecast

Progressive WeatherYield helps traders and producers know better about corn yield, especially in unpredictable conditions

The 2019 season was one of the most volatile ever for corn yield, with massive floods causing delayed planting. The season “frequently tripped up analysts ahead of USDAs reports,” but Main Street Data’s Progressive WeatherYield  tool remained steadfast, consistently forecasting each report well ahead of the monthly numbers.

2020 is shaping up to have an equally unstable start to the season, with saturated soil conditions laying the groundwork for another delayed planting year in several states. Progressive WeatherYield is a valuable tool for understanding these changing variables, with twice-daily corn and soybean forecasts.


Progressive WeatherYield forecast major USDA report yield numbers, in August, October, and year-end. See how Progressive WeatherYield can help you forecast yield sooner, and more accurately.

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