Now is a good time to review yield forecast models for your corn and bean crops

It’s nearly the Fourth of July, and along with flag-waving and family picnics comes the mid-summer estimates of corn and bean yields. While the knee-high adage is no longer as accurate as an elephant’s eye for desired corn height, early July is still an ideal time to consider year-end yields.

In fact, last year at this time, growers were experiencing the Great Flood of 2019, and I was penning my Notes From the Field post, reviewing the flood’s devastation on Interstate 29 from KC to Omaha.

The 2020 season, while just as unique in a pandemic year, looks quite bright for both corn and beans compared to 2019; according to this week’s progress report, both crops are in a favorable state, with no significant issues to note. That’s an abrupt change from the 2019 season, showing once again how important accurate yield forecasting can be – with soil moisture, planting dates, and weather fluctuations all impacting the final yield number.



Weather-based forecast models are superior to NDVI

Since 2012, the Progressive WeatherYield forecast model, based on weather rather than remote sensors such as satellites, has been incredibly accurate in forecasting the final USDA WASDE reports. Just a few months ago, the January WASDE confirmed the PWY forecast from 5 months prior for both corn and beans, showing the early, accurate nature of weather-based forecast models. As early as August 2019, Progressive WeatherYield forecast these final January 2020 numbers within .4 bushel for beans and .1 bushel for corn, which is remarkably early – and remarkably accurate.

While satellite remote sensing can be useful for planting progress and other grower milestones, as shown in the 2019-20 season, weather-based yield forecast models are far superior to NDVI calculations, when forecasting yield.



Weather-based yield forecast model shows corn and beans in excellent shape

Right now, both corn and beans are in an excellent place, with current PWY forecasts for both corn and beans quite favorable. As of June 30, the yield forecast for corn is 180.7 BPA, with beans coming in at 50.9 BPA. If the 2019-20 yield forecast is any indication, Progressive WeatherYield will once again come within inches of the final USDA yields.


corn forecast model
soybean forecast model

Know better, and earlier, with the superior weather-based yield forecast model, Progressive WeatherYield.

Now is the time to consider your 2020 season yield forecast, especially with the July 10 WASDE report coming out in a few days. Within a few weeks, PWY will be making yield forecasts likely to be accurate right through the end of the season.

Learn more at Main Street Data, to see how Progressive WeatherYield can help you forecast yield sooner, and more accurately.


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